It would take a brave owner to order a US$100m, 14 knot container ship
While pessimists may still worry about a “double dip” recession the story from major ports, notably Singapore and Marseilles, is that the box trades are recovering strongly.
True, ships are still laid up in large numbers and slow steaming means that more vessels are being used to maintain schedules than would otherwise be the case. Many observers would point to he massive overhang of tonnage, ordered before the Credit Crunch and due to come into service, swelling carrying capacity by perhaps another 40%.
Nevertheless there is a sense of optimism abroad in the industry, as demonstrated by the recent very large order for new vessel by Evergreen and NOL.
Some would say there is something irrational about buying more ships now when there will clearly a glut of capacity for some time to come. However the latest Shipping Confidence survey by Moore Stephens support the view that now could be a good time for careful investment.
In the liner trades it could well make sense to take advantage of the current low newbuilding prices being offered by yards desperate for work. And it is clear that the big container shipping companies will need more large modern tonnage within the next few years. Apart from anything else the opening of the new, wide locks on the Panama Canal is bound to drastically change the economics of the current panamax fleet.
So ordering now may not be a bad move. But the situation is more complicated the industry is also having to look carefully at what sort of vessel it requires is response to environmental pressures and the prospect of continuing high bunker prices. The principal environmental pressure now is to reduce CO emissions. One way of doing that is to switch to slow steaming and thus cut fuel consumption. Slow steaming of course also reduces costs by cutting fuel bills.
Some, Germanischer Lloyd boss Hermann Klein among them, would argue that that slow steaming is here to stay. If that is the case, if 14 knots really is the new 25 knots, the opportunity is there for owners cut to capital costs by ordering much lower powered engines.
It appears Evergreen apparently has not been convinced by this argument. Evergreen’s new 8,000 TEU ships will have designed service speeds of 24.5 knots. NOL on the other hand appears to taking the prospect of continued slow steaming more into account with the design of its 8,400 TEU vessels. A spokesperson says the ships will be designed to operate at 21.5 knots but will be most efficient at reduced speeds.
One interesting development in this regard is engine manufacturer MAN Diesel & Turbo’s new turbocharger cut-out system which allows optimal fuel consumption at both full and part load. This was developed specifically to accommodate slow steaming by vessels with power plants designed for high speeds. Apparently owners are flocking to buy this system for existing ships.
In similar vein Finnish-based ship power systems integrator Wärtsilä has signed a major contract with AP Moller Maersk Group for the installation of Slow Steaming Upgrade Kits to 34 more of the company’s large container vessels, following the successful installation and testing on one of the fleet’s sister vessels in late 2009.
However well engines may perform, crystal balls tend to be unreliable and it would be a brave owner who ordered a US$100m container ship capable of sailing at just 14 knots. It does seem though that the mindset of some owners at least and available technology are moving in the direction of a flexible approach to speed.
Added 30 July 2010 in the category: Bunkering Blog
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Tags: slow steaming, Hermann Klein, bunker