World Bunkering > News > Industry News > Future of marine fuels 'depends on scrubbers'

The fate of high sulphur residual fuels as we have known them for the past 60 years will be determined by the success or failure of exhaust gas scrubber technology, according to the DNV Petroleum Services half-year marine fuel quality review.

Written by DNVPS senior technical consultant Rudolph Kassinger the review concludes that without widespread adoption of abatement technology, the days of high sulphur residual fuels are numbered.

Dr Kassinger looks at IF 180 and IF 380 grades, and also the very high viscosity grades such as IF 500. He says mid-2010 is important for two reasons – the introduction of a more complex and demanding ISO 8217 specification and the 1 July reduction of the fuel sulphur limit to 1.00% in the Emission control Areas (ECAs).

He expects the market will go through a period of adjustment before fuel buyers and sellers adopt  the revised ISO 8217.

As for the 1.00% sulphur limit in the ECAs, he says that the key concerns are price, availability, fuel density and viscosity.

In the second half of 2010, DNVPS says, it will pay particular attention to how widely the new ISO specification has been adopted by suppliers and fuel buyers. We will also monitor the density and viscosity of 1.00% sulphur fuels for consumption in the ECAs, especially the IF 380 grade.

The fuel testing organisation says that world average fuel quality has been undergoing an upward creep in density and viscosity; and at least in the past five years, a decline in fuel sulphur content.

Dr Kassinger says that while the next MARPOL Annex VI fuel sulphur milestone will see a global reduction from 4.50% to 3.50%, approximately 10% of deliveries tested by DNVPS over the past 18 months had exceeded 3.50%, averaging 3.80%.

He says: “We believe a 3.50% global marine fuel sulphur average is achievable, but with a possible give-away in terms of density and viscosity.” He also notes that DNVPS data has consistently shown that high viscosity fuel grades (450 cSt and above) are higher in sulphur content than the lower viscosity grades. As sulphur limits are lowered, he contends,  it may be increasingly difficult to find high viscosity fuel grades that meet a more restrictive sulphur limit.